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Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads

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  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
  • Mr. Emanuele Baldacci
  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the paper highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2011/221, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/221
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    Cited by:

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    3. Sophie Béreau & Nicolas Debarsy & Cyrille Dossougoin & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2022. "Contagion in the Banking Industry: a Robust-to-Endogeneity Analysis," Working Papers halshs-03513049, HAL.
    4. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "The Time-Spatial Dimension of Eurozone Banking Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
    5. Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Cross-border interbank networks, banking risk and contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 19-32.
    6. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    7. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Shugo Yamamoto, 2015. "Banking Network Amplification Effects on Cross-Border Bank Flows," Discussion Papers 1533, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    9. Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Lamin Njie, 2015. "International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Drivers of Issuance and Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2015/275, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Faruk Balli & Xuan Hu & Faisal Rana, 2020. "Bond market integration of emerging economies and bilateral linkages," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2039-2062, September.
    11. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    12. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Cristiana Fiorelli & Alfredo Cartone & Matteo Foglia, 2021. "Shadow rates and spillovers across the Eurozone: a spatial dynamic panel model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 223-245, February.
    14. Alex Bara & Pierre Le Roux, 2017. "South Africa's Financial Spillover Effects on Growth and Financial Development in the Southern African Development Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 400-412.
    15. Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2013/093, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Capasso Salvatore & D’Uva Marcella, & Fiorelli Cristiana & Napolitano Oreste, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Country-Specific Sovereign Risk on Financial and Banking System in EMU: the Role of Italy," CSEF Working Papers 654, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    17. Guoli Mo & Chunzhi Tan & Weiguo Zhang & Xuezeng Yu, 2023. "Dynamic spatiotemporal correlation coefficient based on adaptive weight," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, December.
    18. Yamamoto, Shugo, 2020. "Banking Network Multiplier effects on cross-border bank inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 493-507.
    19. Chen, Ting-Hsuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Spatial analysis of liquidity risk in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Ngan Tran, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal balance on monetary variables: evidence from large emerging economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1045-1076, September.
    21. Tran, Ngan, 2018. "Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 375-394.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; business cycle; debt; EM; sovereign spreads; emerging market; spillovers; spatial econometrics; Ols estimation; stripped bond; EM fundamentals; GDP ratio; EM sovereign; correlation matrix; estimation result; intra-EM spillover; trade linkage; Spatial models; Inflation; Business cycles; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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