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The "Big C": Identifying Contagion

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  • Kristin Forbes

Abstract

This paper surveys and assesses the academic literature on defining, measuring, and identifying financial contagion and the various channels by which it can occur. It also includes new empirical analysis of recent trends and causes of contagion, highlighting contagion risks in the euro area. The paper defines “interdependence” as high correlations across markets during all states of the world and “contagion” as the spillovers from extreme negative events. Interdependence has increased dramatically over time, especially within the euro area, even after controlling for global shocks and changes in volatility. Not surprisingly, negative events in one country also quickly affect others. Regression analysis shows that a country is more vulnerable to contagion if it has a more levered banking system, greater trade exposure, weaker macroeconomic fundamentals, and larger international portfolio investment liabilities. Countries are less vulnerable, however, if they have larger international portfolio investment assets (which can provide a buffer against shocks) and are less reliant on debt (versus equity) for international financing. These results have important implications for understanding contagion and for analyzing policies designed to mitigate contagion, especially for the current crisis in the euro area.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18465.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18465

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, 06.
  2. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Döhrn, Roland & Gebhardt, Heinz, 2013. "Die fiskalischen Kosten der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 198, University of Duisburg-Essen, Faculty for Economics and Business Administration.
  4. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Suzanne Salloy, 2013. "Contagion effect due to Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy and the global financial crisis - From the perspective of the Credit Default Swaps’ G14 dealers," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-6, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  5. Beniamino Moro, 2013. "The Run On Repo and the Liquidity Shortage Problems of the Current Global Financial Crisis: Europe vs. The US," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 41-77, January.
  6. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
  7. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Suzanne Salloy, 2014. "Dynamics in the correlations of the Credit Default Swaps’ G14 dealers: Are there any contagion effects due to Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy and the global financial crisis?," Working Papers 2014-237, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  8. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
  9. Gębka, Bartosz & Karoglou, Michail, 2013. "Have the GIPSI settled down? Breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for, and not against, the European financial integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3639-3653.

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