Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?
AbstractWe examine the evidence of contagion during the pre World War I era and the interwar and contrast our findings with the evidence of contagion from the recent crises in Asia and Latin America. Using weekly data on bond prices and interest rates, we investigate the extent to which bilateral cross-market correlations rise following the onset of a crisis. After correcting for heteroscedasticity, ala Forbes and Rigobon (1998, 1999), we find little evidence of significant increases in cross-market correlations in either the earlier regimes or in the more recent period. We use principle components analysis to assess the extent of comovement across all markets as well as within various groups of markets, prior to, and after the onset of a crisis. Countries are grouped into regions, as well as along the lines of advanced and emerging. There is little evidence to suggest that cross-country linkages are tighter in the aftermath of a financial crisis for the recent period. There is, however, some evidence of stronger comovement during periods of instability in earlier regimes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7900.
Date of creation: Sep 2000
Date of revision:
Note: DAE IFM ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Neal,Larry, 1994. "The Rise of Financial Capitalism," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521457385, December.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1999. "Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998.
"The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows,"
in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 1998. "Price stability and financial stability: the historical record," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 41-62.
- Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.