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How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads

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Author Info
Barry Eichengreen
Ashoka Mody
Milan Nedeljkovic
Lucio Sarno

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Abstract

How did the Subprime Crisis, a problem in a small corner of U.S. financial markets, affect the entire global banking system? To shed light on this question we use principal components analysis to identify common factors in the movement of banks' credit default swap spreads. We find that fortunes of international banks rise and fall together even in normal times along with short-term global economic prospects. But the importance of common factors rose steadily to exceptional levels from the outbreak of the Subprime Crisis to past the rescue of Bear Stearns, reflecting a diffuse sense that funding and credit risk was increasing. Following the failure of Lehman Brothers, the interdependencies briefly increased to a new high, before they fell back to the pre-Lehman elevated levels – but now they more clearly reflected heightened funding and counterparty risk. After Lehman's failure, the prospect of global recession became imminent, auguring the further deterioration of banks' loan portfolios. At this point the entire global financial system had become infected.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14904.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14904

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Optimal Tests For Nested Model Selection With Underlying Parameter Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(05), pages 962-990, October. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 2007. "Forecasting the Volatility of Australian Stock Returns: Do Common Factors Help?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 76-90, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during a Global Economic Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during a Global Economic Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish: How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 09/108, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.


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