Fatih Ozatay () (Department of Economics, ETU) Erdal Ozmen (Department of Economics, METU) Gülbin Sahinbeyoglu () (CBRT)
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of global financial conditions, US macroeconomic news and domestic macroeconomic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we employ not only the conventional panel data estimation procedures but also the recently developed common correlated effects panel mean group method which incorporates heterogeneity by allowing country-specific coefficients whilst accounting for the effects of common global shocks such as contagion. The results strongly suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on external factors such as changes in global liquidity conditions, risk appetite and crises contagion. Domestic macroeconomic fundamentals proxied by sovereign country ratings are also found to be important in explaining the spreads. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to US macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve’s target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of US macroeconomic news, however, crucially depend on the state of the US economy, such as the presence of an inflation dominance.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University in its series ERC Working Papers with number
0707.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)