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What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis

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  • Graciela L. Kaminsky
  • Sergio L. Schmukler

Abstract

In the chaotic financial environment of Asia in 1997-1998, daily changes in stock prices of about 10 percent became commonplace. This paper analyzes what type of news moves the markets in those days of market jitters. We find that movements are triggered by local and neighbor-country news, with news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies having the most weight. However, some of those large changes cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news, but seem to be driven by herd instincts of the markets itself. The evidence suggests that investors over-react to bad news.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/634/default.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 634.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:634

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Keywords: Financial markets ; Asia;

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  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1998. "Country funds and asymmetric information," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1886, The World Bank.
  3. Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The “Overborrowing Syndrome”," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1997. "Rational Herd Behavior and the Globalization of Securities Markets," Working Papers 97-26, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  12. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  13. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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