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Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads

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Author Info
Dailami, Mansoor
Masson, Paul R.
Padou, Jean Jose

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Abstract

US interest rate policy is shown to have a significant influence on emerging market bond spreads, but it is important to allow for non-linearities: US interest rates affect secondary market spreads differently, depending on countries' debt levels. Moderate debtors suffer little impact from an increase in US interest rates, while a country close to the borderline of solvency would face a much steeper increase in its spread. A 200 basis points increase in US short-term interest rates would increase emerging market spreads by 6-65Â bps, depending on debt/GNI ratios.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1325-1336
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:8:p:1325-1336

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Emerging markets Interest rate spreads US monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23. [Downloadable!]
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fatih Ozatay & Erdal Ozmen & Gülbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2007. "Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads, Global Financial Conditions and U.S. Macroeconomic News," ERC Working Papers 0707, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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