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Credit Spread Changes within Switching Regimes

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  • Olfa Maalaoui
  • Georges Dionne
  • Pascal François

Abstract

Many empirical studies on credit spread determinants consider a single-regime model over the entire sample period and find limited explanatory power. We model the credit cycle independently from macroeconomic fundamentals using a Markov regime switching model. We show that accounting for endogenous credit cycles enhances the explanatory power of credit spread determinants. The single regime model cannot be improved when conditioning on the states of the NBER economic cycle. Furthermore, the regime-based model highlights a positive relation between credit spreads and the risk-free rate in the high regime. Inverted relations are also obtained for some other determinants.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0905.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0905

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Keywords: Credit spread; switching regimes; market risk; liquidity risk; default risk; credit cycle; NBER economic cycle;

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Cited by:
  1. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002-2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
  2. Christoph Riedel & Kannan Thuraisamy & Niklas Wagner, . "Conditional Spread Determinants for Emerging Sovereign Debt," Financial Econometics Series 2012_08, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  3. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.

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