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Varieties of Currency Crises

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Graciela L. Kaminsky

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Abstract

The plethora of currency crises around the world has fueled many theories on the causes of speculative attacks. The first-generation models focus on fiscal problems. The second-generation models emphasize countercyclical policies and self-fulfilling crises. In the 1990s, models pinpoint to financial excesses. With the crisis of Argentina in 2001, models of sovereign default have become popular again. While the theoretical literature has emphasized variety, the empirical literature has supported the one size fits all' models. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by assessing whether the crises of the last thirty years are of different varieties. Crises are found to be of six varieties. Four of those varieties are associated with domestic economic fragility. But crises can also be provoked by just adverse world market conditions, such as the reversal of international capital flows. The so-called sudden-stop phenomenon identifies the fifth variety of crises. Finally, a small number of crises occur in economies with immaculate fundamentals but this type of crises is not an emerging-market phenomenon.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10193.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10193

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F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Capital Flows, Maturity Mismatches and Profitability in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data," Working papers 2006-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  3. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," HEI Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:att:wimass:192054 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Knill, April M., 2005. "Taking the bad with the good : volatility of foreign portfolio investment and financial constraints of small firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3797, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  7. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade any Importance in the Transmission of Currency Shocks?," Economics Working Papers 028, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  8. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Mansoor Dailami & Paul Masson & Jean Jose Padou, 2005. "Global Monetary Conditions versus Country-Specific Factors in the Determination of Emerging Market Debt Spreads," International Finance 0506003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Alfredo Pistelli, 2007. "Speculative currency attacks: role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies and real exchange rate overvaluation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(2), pages 3-27, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Néstor Adrián Amado & Ana María Cerro & Osvaldo Meloni, 2005. "Making Explosive Cocktails: recipes and costs for 26 Crises from 1823 to 2003," Economic History 0510001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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