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Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises

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Author Info
Amartya Lahiri
Carlos A. Vegh

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Abstract

The classical model of balance of payments crises implicitly assumes that the central bank sits passively as international reserves dwindle. In practice, however, central banks typically defend pegs aggressively by raising short-term interest rates. This paper analyzes the feasibility and optimality of raising interest rates to delay a potential BOP crisis. Interest rate policy works through two distinct channels. By raising demand for domestic, interest-bearing liquid assets, higher interest rates tend to delay the crisis. Higher interest rates, however, increase public debt service and imply higher future inflation, which tends to bring forward the crisis. We show that, under certain conditions, it is feasible to delay the crisis, but raising interest rates beyond a certain point may actually hasten the crisis. A similar non-monotonic relationship emerges between welfare and the increase in interest rates. It is thus optimal to engage in some active interest rate defense but only up to a certain point. In fact, there is a whole range of interest rate increases for which it is feasible to delay the crisis but not optimal to do so.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7734.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7734

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Reinhart, Vincent, 1992. "The design of an interest rate rule with staggered contracting and costly transacting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 663-688. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  8. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Végh, 1997. "Losing Credibility: The Stabilization Blues," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 122, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Velasco, Andreas, 1993. "Real Interest Rates and Government Debt during Stabilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 259-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert P. Flood & Olivier Jeanne, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 00/159, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Miguel A. Savastano, 1996. "Dollarization in Latin America - Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 96/4, International Monetary Fund.
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  17. David M. Gould & Steven B. Kamin, 2000. "The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 669, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defence in the 1990s," CEPR Discussion Papers 2943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2003. "The unholy trinity of financial contagion," MPRA Paper 13878, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Campa, Jose M., 2002. "Exchange rate crises and bilateral trade flows in Latin America," IESE Research Papers D/470, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stanley Black & Charis Christofides & Alex Mourmouras, 2006. "Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 141-165, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gonzalo Caprirolo & Vladimir Lavrac, 2003. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17g, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003. [Downloadable!]
  8. Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Fernando Broner, 1999. "On the Timing of Balance of Payments Crises: Disaggregated Information and Interest Rate Policy," Economics Working Papers 840, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2002. "Two Hundred Years of Contagion," MPRA Paper 13229, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andryakov Alexander & Gurvich Evsey, 2002. "A Model of the Russian Crisis Development," EERC Working Paper Series 02-03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  12. Claudia M. Buch, 2001. "Financial Market Integration in a Monetary Union," Kiel Working Papers 1062, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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