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Mis-Leading Indicators?: The Argentinean Currency Crisis

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  • Patricia Alvarez-Plata
  • Mechthild Schrooten

Abstract

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.40182.de/dp327.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 327.

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Length: 24 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Journal of Policy Modeling 26 (2004), 5, 587-603
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp327

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Keywords: Currency Crisis; Early Warning Systems;

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References

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  3. Banerjee, Abhijit & Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe, 2001. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Scholarly Articles 4554218, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
  10. Feldstein, Martin, 2002. "Argentina's Fall: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 2959849, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kuper, Gerard H. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  2. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2011. "Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 381-394, May.
  3. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.
  4. Su, Dongwei & He, Xingxing, 2010. "A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China," MPRA Paper 19962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
  6. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-411, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  7. Federico Marongiu, 2005. "Towards A New Set Of Leading Indicators Of Currency Crisis For Developing Countries: An Application To Argentina," Public Economics 0512011, EconWPA.
  8. Peng, Duan & Bajona, Claustre, 2008. "China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 138-151, June.
  9. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006. "Robust lessons about practical early warning systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 163-193, February.
  10. María José Gil-Moltó & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky & Vasileios Zikos, 2006. "R&D policy and privatization in a mixed oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 2006_25, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
  11. Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Unstable Debt/GDP Dynamics as an Early Warning Indicator," Research Memorandum 016, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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