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Mis-Leading Indicators?: The Argentinean Currency Crisis Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Patricia Alvarez-Plata
Mechthild Schrooten
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Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number
327.
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Length: 24 p.
Date of creation: 2003Date of revision:
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Keywords: Currency Crisis ; Early Warning Systems ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001.
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Other versions:
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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[Downloadable!] Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006.
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"Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey ,"
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2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
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