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Misleading indicators? The Argentinean currency crisis

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  • Alvarez-Plata, Patricia
  • Schrooten, Mechthild

Abstract

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 (July)
Pages: 587-603

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:26:y:2004:i:5:p:587-603

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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References

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  8. Feldstein, Martin, 2002. "Argentina's Fall: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 2959849, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Working Papers 00.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  10. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Federico Marongiu, 2005. "Towards A New Set Of Leading Indicators Of Currency Crisis For Developing Countries: An Application To Argentina," Public Economics 0512011, EconWPA.
  2. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-065, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Sawischlewski, Katja & Menkhoff, Lukas & Beckmann, Daniela, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 3, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  4. Peng, Duan & Bajona, Claustre, 2008. "China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 138-151, June.
  5. Su, Dongwei & He, Xingxing, 2010. "A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China," MPRA Paper 19962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
  7. repec:dgr:umamer:2005016 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Kuper, Gerard H. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  9. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.
  10. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2011. "Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 381-394, May.
  11. María José Gil-Moltó & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky & Vasileios Zikos, 2006. "R&D policy and privatization in a mixed oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 2006_25, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.

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