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Global Monetary Conditions versus Country-Specific Factors in the Determination of Emerging Market Debt Spreads

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Author Info
Mansoor Dailami (World Bank)
Paul Masson (Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto)
Jean Jose Padou (University of Toronto)

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Abstract

We offer evidence in this paper that US interest rate policy has an important influence in the determination of credit spreads on emerging market bonds over US benchmark treasuries, and therefore on their cost of capital. Our analysis improves upon the existing literature and understanding, by addressing the dynamics of market expectations in shaping views on interest rate and monetary policy changes, and by recognizing non-linearities in the link between US interest rates and emerging market bond spreads, as the level of interest rates affects the market's perceived probability of default and the solvency of emerging market borrowers. For a country with a moderate level of debt, repayment prospects would remain good in the face of an increase in US interest rates, so there would be little increase in spreads. A country close to the borderline of solvency would face a steeper increase in the spreads. Simulations of a 200 basis points (bps) increase in US short-term interest rates (ignoring any change in the US 10 year Treasury rate) show an increase in emerging market spreads ranging from 6 bps to 65 bps, depending on debt/GDP ratios.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0506003.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0506003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32
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Related research
Keywords: emerging market spreads currency crises global monetary conditions

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  7. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fatih Ozatay & Erdal Ozmen & Gülbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2007. "Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads, Global Financial Conditions and U.S. Macroeconomic News," ERC Working Papers 0707, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
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