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Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Role-over

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Author Info
Mark A. Carlson (Board of Governors, Federal Reserve)
Galina B. Hale (Dept. of Economics, Yale University)

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Abstract

We propose a model of rating agencies that is an application of global game theory in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. The model allows us to explore the impact of the introduction of a rating agency on financial markets. Our model suggests that the addition of the rating agency affects the probability of default and the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals in a non–trivial way, and that introducing a rating agency can bring multiple equilibria to a market that otherwise would have the unique equilibrium.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d15a/d1506.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1506.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1506

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Related research
Keywords: Credit rating; Rating agency; Sovereign debt; Global game;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Seth B. Carpenter & William Whitesell & Egon Zakrajsek, 2001. "Capital requirements, business loans, and business cycles: an empirical analysis of the standardized approach in the new Basel Capital Accord," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  4. Millon, Marcia H & Thakor, Anjan V, 1985. " Moral Hazard and Information Sharing: A Model of Financial Information Gathering Agencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1403-22, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ferri, Giovanni & Li-Gang Liu & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2000. "How the proposd Basel Guidelines on rating-agency assessments would affect developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2369, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1998. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Emerging Market Risk and Financial Market Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 26222, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Arnoud W.A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-058/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Their Impact on Recent Financial Crises," International Finance 0311013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 457, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Allen, Franklin, 1990. "The market for information and the origin of financial intermediation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Roberto Chang, 2005. "Financial Crises and Political Crises," NBER Working Papers 11779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  23. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christina E. Bannier & Marcel Tyrell, 2005. "Modelling the role of credit rating agencies - Do they spark off a virtuous circle?," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 160, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sanne Zwart, 2005. "Liquidity runs with endogenous information acquisition," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/18, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christina E. Bannier & Falko Fecht & Marcel Tyrell, 2008. "Open-End Real Estate Funds in Germany - Genesis and Crisis," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 165, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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