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Sovereign Credit Ratings and Their Impact on Recent Financial Crises

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Author Info
Roman Kraeussl (Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt/Main)

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Abstract

This paper discusses the role of the credit rating agencies during the recent financial crises. In particular, it examines whether the agencies can add to the dynamics of emerging market crises. Academics and investors often argue that sovereign credit ratings are responsible for pronounced boom-bust cycles in emerging markets lending. Using a vector autoregressive system this paper examines how US dollar bond yield spreads and the short-term international liquidity position react to an unexpected sovereign credit rating change. Contrary to common belief and previous studies, the empirical results suggest that an abrupt downgrade does not necessarily intensify a financial crisis.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0311013.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 25 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0311013

Note: Type of Document - ; pages: 24
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign Risk; Boom-Bust-Cycles; Financial Crises; VAR System;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis - Causes, Policy Responses and Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 99/138, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 148, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/18, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Galina Hale, 2005. "Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Roll–over," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp062, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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