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Sovereign Ratings and Their Impact on Recent Financial Crises

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Author Info
Roman Kraeussl (Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

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Abstract

This paper discusses the role of credit rating agencies during the recent financial crises. In particular, it examines whether the agencies can add to the dynamics of emerging market crises. Academics and investors often argue that sovereign ratings are responsible for pronounced boom-bust cycles in emerging-markets lending. Using a VAR system this paper examines how US dollar bond yield spreads and international liquidity react to an unexpected sovereign rating change. Contrary to common belief and previous studies, the empirical results suggest that an abrupt downgrade does not necessarily intensify financial crises.

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File URL: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/wpa/docs/CFS-WP1.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Crete, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0002.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 00 Feb 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0002

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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign Ratings; Boom-Bust-Cycles; Financial Crises; VAR System;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis - Causes, Policy Responses and Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 99/138, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Anthony J. Richards & David Deddouche, 1999. "Bank Rating Changes and Bank Stock Returns - Puzzling Evidence from the Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 99/151, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 148, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/18, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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