Credit Rating Agency Downgrades and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises
AbstractThis paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) downgrade announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA downgrade announcements negatively affected the value of the Euro currency and also increased its volatility. Downgrading increased the yields of French, Italian and Spanish bonds but lowered the German bond's yields, although Germany's rating status was never touched by CRA. There is no evidence for Granger causality from bond yields to rating announcements. We infer from these findings that CRA announcements significantly influenced crisis-time capital allocation in the Eurozone. Their downgradings caused investors to rebalance their portfolios across member countries, out of ailing states' debt into more stable borrowers' securities.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 841.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
Date of revision: 30 Jan 2014
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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC
Credit Rating Agencies; Euro Crisis; Sovereign Debt; Euro Exchange Rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-11-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2013-11-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2013-11-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2013-11-14 (Macroeconomics)
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