Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data

Contents:

Author Info

  • António Afonso
  • Davide Furceri
  • Pedro Gomes

Abstract

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show: significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements; announcements are not anticipated at 1-2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1-2 weeks; spillover effects especially from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp142011.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2011/14.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp142011

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

Related research

Keywords: credit ratings; sovereign yields; rating agencies. Classification-C23; E44; G15.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, 01.
  2. Kraeussl, Roman, 2003. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Romain Rancière, 2002. "Credit derivatives in emerging markets," Economics Working Papers 856, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  7. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
  8. Amar Gande & David Parsley, 2003. "News Spillovers in the Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 062003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-93, July.
  10. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes, 2010. "Do fiscal imbalances deteriorate sovereign debt ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/24, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  11. Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
  12. Rabah Arezki & Bertrand Candelon & Amadou Sy, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3411, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  14. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/15, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  15. David Bowman & Deborah Minehart & Matthew Rabin, 1994. "Loss aversion in a consumption/savings model," International Finance Discussion Papers 492, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
  17. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
  18. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
  19. Afonso, António & Strauch, Rolf, 2004. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU," Working Paper Series 0303, European Central Bank.
  20. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
  21. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
  22. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Bertrand Candelon & Amadou N. R. Sy & Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 11/68, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp142011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.