The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes
AbstractThis paper examines the effect of sovereign credit rating change announcements on the CDS spreads of the event countries, and their spillover effects on other emerging economies' CDS premiums. We find that positive events have a greater impact on CDS markets in the two-day period surrounding the event, and are more likely to spill over to other emerging countries. Alternatively, CDS markets anticipate negative events, and previous changes in CDS premiums can be used to estimate the probability of a negative credit event. The transmission mechanisms for positive events are the common creditor and competition in trade markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Credit default swaps Credit ratings Emerging markets Spillover effects Transmission channels;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999.
"Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-93, July.
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998.
"Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Norden, L. & Wagner, W.B., 2007.
"Credit Derivatives and Loan Pricing,"
2007-015, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Stolper, Anno, 2009. "Regulation of credit rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1266-1273, July.
- Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
- Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005.
"News spillovers in the sovereign debt market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
- Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
- Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
- Marian Micu & Eli M Remolona & Philip D. Wooldridge, 2006. "The price impact of rating announcements: which announcements matter?," BIS Working Papers 207, Bank for International Settlements.
- Alessio Ciarlone & Paolo Piselli & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2007.
"Emerging Markets Spreads and Global Financial Conditions,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
637, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 1999. "Financial contagion: Spillovers through banking centers," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Romain Rancière, 2002. "Credit derivatives in emerging markets," Economics Working Papers 856, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007.
"Insider trading in credit derivatives,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
- Steiner, Manfred & Heinke, Volker G, 2001. "Event Study Concerning International Bond Price Effects of Credit Rating Actions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 139-57, April.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June.
- Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
- Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012.
"Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Paper Series 1347, European Central Bank.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/14, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012.
"“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”,"
IREA Working Papers
201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
- Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News," Working Papers 2012/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
- Finnerty, John D. & Miller, Cameron D. & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2013. "The impact of credit rating announcements on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2011-2030.
- Zabel, Michael & Böninghausen, Benjamin, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79724, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Qiaoyang Zheng, 2011. "The Liar equilibrium in naked sovereign CDS trading : a financial economic approach," Post-Print dumas-00651782, HAL.
- Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2013. "Sovereign debt: financial market over-reliance on credit rating agencies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 72, pages 78-90 Bank for International Settlements.
- Steinar Holden & Gisle James Natvik & Adrien Vigier, 2012.
"An equilibrium model of credit rating agencies,"
2012/23, Norges Bank.
- Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2012. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Working Papers 12.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
- Mitra, Sovan & Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Wang, I-Chieh, 2013. "Pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 102-111.
- Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
- Christopher F. Baum & Margarita Karpava & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2013. "Credit Rating Agency Downgrades and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 841, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jan 2014.
- Baum, Christopher & Karpava, Margarita & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2013.
"Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises,"
Ratio Working Papers
224, The Ratio Institute.
- Christopher F. Baum & Margarita Karpava & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2013. "Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1333, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-577.
- Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," MPRA Paper 47390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2012. "A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 741-761.
- Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.