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Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from the EU

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  • Afonso, Antonio
  • Strauch, Rolf

Abstract

In this paper we assess the importance given in capital markets to the credibility of the European fiscal framework. We evaluate to which extent relevant fiscal policy events taking place in the course of 2002 produced a reaction in the long-term bond segment of the capital markets. Firstly, we identify the fiscal policy events and qualitatively assess the views of capital market participants. Secondly, we estimate the impact of these fiscal events on the interest rate swap spreads, which is our measure for the risk premium. According to our results the reaction of swap spreads, where it turned out to be significant, has been mostly around five basis points or less. JEL Classification: C22, G15, H30

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 261-276

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:17:y:2007:i:3:p:261-276

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  1. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 1330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ingunn LØnning, 2000. "Default premia on European government debt," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 259-283, June.
  3. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. M. Ehrmann & M. Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
  6. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
  7. Jan J.G. Lemmen & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 1999. "Credit Risks and European Government Bond Markets: A Panel Data Econometric Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 77-107, Winter.
  8. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 0369, European Central Bank.
  9. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2002/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  10. Steiner, Manfred & Heinke, Volker G, 2001. "Event Study Concerning International Bond Price Effects of Credit Rating Actions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 139-57, April.
  11. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
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