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Ordered Response Models for Sovereign Debt Ratings

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  • António Afonso
  • Pedro Gomes
  • Philipp Rother

Abstract

Using ordered logit and probit plus random effects ordered probit approaches, we study the determinants of sovereign debt ratings. We found that the last procedure is the best for panel data as it takes into account the additional cross-section error.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2006/34.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp342006

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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: ordered probit; ordered logit; random effects ordered probit; sovereign rating.;

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References

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  1. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Yannis M. Ioannides, 1993. "Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints," Working Papers _019, Yale University.
  2. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
  3. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Andrew Pickles & Colin Taylor, 2000. "Generalized linear latent and mixed models," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(53).
  4. Guillaume R. Frechette, 2001. "Random-effects ordered probit," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(59).
  5. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrés Leal Marcos & Julio López Laborda, 2009. "Efectos externos del endeudamiento sobre la calificación crediticia de las Comunidades Autónomas," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 189(2), pages 81-106, June.
  2. Pastor Monsálvez José Manuel & Fernández de Guevara Radoselovics Juan & Salvador Muñoz Carlos, 2012. "Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Bank Ratings: The Effect of the Hardening of Rating Policies and Worsening of Solvency," Working Papers 2012120, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 3249, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," IREA Working Papers 201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
  5. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
  6. António Afonso & Davide Furceri & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/14, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 140-147, September.
  8. Basu, Kaushik & De, Supriyo & Ratha, Dilip & Timmer, Hans, 2013. "Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6641, The World Bank.

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