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Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework

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Author Info

  • Dilek Teker

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Okan University, Turkey)

  • Aynur Pala

    (Research Analyst, Research Centre for Financial Risks,Okan University, Turkey.)

  • Oya Kent

    (Research Assistant, Research Centre for Financial Risks,Okan University, Turkey)

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    Abstract

    The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 122-132

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    Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2013-01-12

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    Web page: http://www.econjournals.com

    Related research

    Keywords: Credit notches; factor analysis; ordered probit model;

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    References

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    1. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
    2. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    3. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Angela Y.N.Yip, 2005. "Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    5. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    6. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, 01.
    7. Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006. "Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
    8. Otaviano Canuto & Pablo F. Pereira Dos Santos & Paulo C. De Sá Porto, 2012. "Macroeconomics And Sovereign Risk Ratings," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1250011-1-1.
    9. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    10. Hammer, P.L. & Kogan, A. & Lejeune, M.A., 2006. "Modeling country risk ratings using partial orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 836-859, December.
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