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The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings

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  • Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
  • Mr. Luca A Ricci

Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii) the negative debt-ratings relationship is nonlinear and depends on the rating grade itself; and iii) the identified nonlinearity explains the differential impact of debt on ratings in advanced economies versus in emerging markets and developing economies. These results hold for both gross debt and net debt, and are robust to alternative dependent variable definitions, analytical techniques, and empirical specifications. These findings underscore the potential for fiscal consolidation in helping countries achieve a better credit rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2019. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2019/162, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/162
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    1. Jan Bruha & Moritz Karber & Beatrice Pierluigi & Ralph Setzer, 2017. "Understanding Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017/06, Czech National Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Chile: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/312, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Pineau, Edouard & Le, Phuong & Estran, Rémy, 2022. "Importance of ESG factors in sovereign credit ratings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "How much is too much? Assessing the non-linear relationship between debt and sovereign creditworthiness," EIB Working Papers 2022/05, European Investment Bank (EIB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; rating category; LIG rating; GDP growth; debt-ratings relationship; panel regression; rating grade; Credit ratings; Public debt; Credit rating agencies; Financial markets; Advanced economies; Emerging markets; Non-linearities; NIG rating; credit rating grade; High-Investment Grade; Inflation; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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