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Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?

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  • Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
  • Mr. Luca A Ricci

Abstract

Does gross or net debt matter for long-term sovereign spreads in emerging markets? The topic is important for undestanding the borrowing cost implications of public assetliability management decisions (e.g. using assets to lower debt). We investigate this question using data on emerging market economies (EMEs) over the period 1998–2014. We find that both gross debt and assets have a significant impact on long-term sovereign bond spreads in emerging markets, with effects roughly offsetting each other (coefficients of opposite sign and similar magnitude). Hence, net debt seems more appropriate than gross debt when evaluating the impact of indebtedness on spreads. The empirical results suggest that an increase in net debt by 10 percentage points of GDP implies an increase in the spread by 100–120 basis points, and the effect is larger during periods of domestic distress. The key results from this empirical study are quite robust to alternative specifications and subgroups of EMEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2016. "Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?," IMF Working Papers 2016/246, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/246
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Chile: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/312, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy," IMF Working Papers 2019/170, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Maren Brede & Christian Henn, 2018. "Finland’s Public Sector Balance Sheet: A Novel Approach to Analysis of Public Finance," IMF Working Papers 2018/078, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Abdullah Al-Hassan & Sue Brake & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Martin Skancke, 2018. "Commodity-based Sovereign Wealth Funds: Managing Financial Flows in the Context of the Sovereign Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 2018/026, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Matteo Ruzzante, 2018. "Financial Crises, Macroeconomic Shocks, and the Government Balance Sheet: A Panel Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2018/093, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2019. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2019/162, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Levy, Antoine & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Atkinson, Giles & Hamilton, Kirk, 2020. "Sustaining wealth: Simulating a sovereign wealth fund for the UK's oil and gas resources, past and future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Camila Henao-Arbelaez & Nelson Sobrinho, 2018. "Activos financieros del gobierno y sostenibilidad de la deuda," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 45-98, enero-mar.
    10. Ms. Camila Henao Arbelaez & Nelson Sobrinho, 2017. "Government Financial Assets and Debt Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2017/173, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ezequiel Cabezon & Christian Henn, 2018. "Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 2018/190, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Atkinson, Giles & Hamilton, Kirk, 2020. "Sustaining wealth: simulating a sovereign wealth fund for the UK’s oil and gas resources, past and future," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103564, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Calderon,Cesar & Zeufack,Albert G., 2020. "Borrow with Sorrow ? The Changing Risk Profile of Sub-Saharan Africa's Debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9137, The World Bank.

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