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Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

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  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
  • Mr. Sergio Sola

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 2013/159, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/159
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    Cited by:

    1. Oseni O. Isiaq & Adesoye A. Bolaji, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rate in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(2), pages 70-83, April.
    2. Metodij Hadzi‐Vaskov & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2022. "Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1777-1802, September.
    3. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    4. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    5. Lozano, Ignacio & Julio, Juan Manuel, 2016. "Descentralización fiscal y crecimiento económico en Colombia: evidencia de datos de panel a nivel regional," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2015. "Descentralización Fiscal y Crecimiento Económico: Evidencia Regional en Panel de Datos para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 865, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Roel Beetsma & Jacopo Cimadomo & Oana Furtuna & Massimo Giuliodori1, 2015. "The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 439-489.
    8. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    9. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 72534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luis Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2015. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth: Evidence from Regional-Level Panel Data for Colombia," Borradores de Economia 865i, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Adi Brender & Sigal Ribon, 2015. "The Effect of Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Global Economy on Real Yields of Israel Government Bonds," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2015.02, Bank of Israel.
    12. Suvra Prokash Mondal & Biswajit Maitra, 2022. "Deficits, Debt and Interest Rates in Sri Lanka: Does the Spillover of Foreign Interest Rates Matter?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 28-48, February.
    13. Gladys A. A. Nabieu & Godfred A. Bokpin & Achampong K. Osei & Patrick O. Asuming, 2021. "The effects of fiscal governance on fiscal performance in Sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5746-5761, October.
    14. Lozano, Ignacio & Julio, Juan Manuel, 2016. "Fiscal decentralization and economic growth in Colombia: evidence from regional-level panel data," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    15. Mr. Sergio Sola & Mr. Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2015/117, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Oseni O. Isiaq & Adesoye A. Bolaji, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rate in Nigeria," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(12), pages 70-83, April.
    17. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2016. "Descentralización Fiscal y Crecimiento Económico: Evidencia Regional en Panel de Datos para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 14251, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Castañeda, Víctor Mauricio, 2018. "El premio de implementar las reformas contables en el sector público promovidas por los organismos multilaterales || The Prize for Implementing Accounting Reforms in the Public Sector Promoted by Mult," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 74-103, Diciembre.
    19. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 85432, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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