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Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Mirko Abbritti
  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
  • Mr. Antonio Moreno
  • Mr. Sergio Sola

Abstract

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirko Abbritti & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Antonio Moreno & Mr. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2013/223, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/223
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; credit crisis; risk factor; Yield Curve; Global Factors; FAVAR; Affine Term Structure Models; Term Premium; term Premia; term structure model; country-yield curves; yield curve curvature; Treasury yield curve data; global factor; monetary policy authority; standard deviation; Inflation; Monetary expansion; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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