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An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK

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  • Spencer, Peter
  • Liu, Zhuoshi

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-country macro-finance model to study international economic and financial linkages. This approach models the economy and financial markets jointly using both types of data to throw light on such issues. The world economy is modelled using data for the US and aggregate OECD economies as well as the US Treasury bond market using latent variables to represent a common inflation trend and a US real interest rate factor. We find strong evidence of global effects on both the US and UK, calling into question the standard closed economy macro-finance specification. These economic linkages also help to explain the co-movement of yields in the US and UK Treasury bond markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 667-680

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:667-680

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Keywords: Macroeconomics Spillover effects Common shocks Macro-finance model Term structure;

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References

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  1. Peter D. Spencer, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility in a Macro-Finance Model of the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961-2004," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1177-1215, 09.
  2. Jian Yang & Hui Guo & Zijun Wang, 2004. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis," Working Papers 2004-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  7. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Seth Armitage & Janusz Brzeszczynski, 2010. "Forecasting UK Inflation: An Empirical Analysis ," CFI Discussion Papers 1002, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
  2. Finlay, Richard & Jääskelä, Jarkko P., 2014. "Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 270-276.
  3. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell'Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 13/223, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
  5. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2009. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Working Paper Series 1079, European Central Bank.
  6. Liu, Zhuoshi & Spencer, Peter, 2013. "Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 241-256.
  7. Richard Finlay & David Olivan, 2012. "Extracting Information from Financial Market Instruments," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 45-54, March.
  8. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2012. "The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 383-394.

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