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Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach

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Author Info
António Afonso
Luca Agnello
Davide Furceri
Ricardo M. Sousa

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Abstract

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the timevarying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence – we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US, whilst they have improved for Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands..

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Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2009/19.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp192009

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/departamentos/economia/

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal Deterioration; Fiscal Sustainability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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  4. Antonio Afonso & Peter Claeys, 2007. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output," Working Paper Series 775, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. António Afonso, 2008. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 313-334, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal," NIPE Working Papers 1/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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