The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion
AbstractWe offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a 'convergence-trade' model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in country specific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2010/9.
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
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euro-area; crisis; spreads; fundamentals; expectations; contagion; speculation;
Other versions of this item:
- Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
- Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: fundamentals, expectations and contagion," SIRE Focus Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) 2011-01, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 436, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow 2010_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-10-02 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-10-02 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
- Gomez-Puig, Marta, 2006. "Size matters for liquidity: Evidence from EMU sovereign yield spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 156-162, February.
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