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Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU

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  • Antonio Afonso

Abstract

I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP rations, signaling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance higher budget deficits in the market.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Pages: 1437-1441

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:15:p:1437-1441

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Cited by:
  1. Salvatore Dell’Erba, Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  2. António Afonso & Ana Sofia Nunes, 2013. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  3. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  4. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2013. "Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Euro zone during the financial and debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 258-272.
  6. Panagiotis Petrakis & Emmanuel Papadakis & Nikoleta Daniilopoulou, 2012. "Public Statements on Sovereign Yield Spreads:The Greek Case," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(2), pages 5-16, December.
  7. Gerhard Reitschuler & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 2011-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  8. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates and Risk Premia in Open Economy," IHEID Working Papers 05-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  9. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2010. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Working Paper Series 1276, European Central Bank.
  10. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 13/159, International Monetary Fund.

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