Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU
AbstractI use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP rations, signaling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance higher budget deficits in the market.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- António Afonso, 2009. "Long-term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/38, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
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- Salvatore Dell’Erba, Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- António Afonso & Ana Sofia Nunes, 2013. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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- Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 13/159, International Monetary Fund.
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