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The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

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  • António Afonso
  • Michael G. Arghyrou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited. JEL Classification: C23, E62, H50.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2012/36.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp362012

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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: sovereign yields; government debt; panel analysis; credit ratings;

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Cited by:
  1. António Afonso, & Michael G. Arghyrou, & George Bagdatoglou, & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2013. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  2. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2014. "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/06, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  3. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in time of crisis: A panel data analysis," Working Papers 2014-04, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
  4. António Afonso & Ana Sofia Nunes, 2013. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi, 2014. "Measuring the eff ect of government ESG performance on sovereign borrowing cost," Working Papers hal-00951304, HAL.
  6. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2014. "Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing of Sovereigns and the Greek Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 405-419.
  8. António Afonso & Ana Catarina Ramos Félix, 2014. "Contagion in EU Sovereign Yield Spreads," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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