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Banking and Debt Crisis in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?

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  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Franz Palm

Abstract

The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated. After reviewing the criteria used to measure the debt vulnerability, the balance sheet approach (BSA) is presented in order to illustrate the potential connections between these two types of crises. A graphical analysis yields evidence that at the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before. Nevertheless, the serious threats, which concern Greece and Ireland, do not permit us to exclude the occurrence of a contagious, or self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-03/cesifo1_wp3001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3001.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3001

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Keywords: banking crisis; sovereign debt crisis; European Union;

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-50, May.
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  3. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
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  6. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  8. Reuven GLICK & Michael HUTCHISON, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are The Twins?," Working Papers 012000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1995. "Sovereign credit ratings," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Jun).
  10. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  12. Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
  13. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2008. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Working Papers 08/238, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Beniamino Moro, 2013. "The Run On Repo and the Liquidity Shortage Problems of the Current Global Financial Crisis: Europe vs. The US," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 41-77, January.
  2. Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Bertrand Candelon & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2012. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Working Papers halshs-00630036, HAL.
  3. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:785-807 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Lawson, Cornelia & Soós,Sándor, 2014. "A Thematic Mobility Measure for Econometric Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201408, University of Turin.
  5. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Burietz, Aurore, 2013. "One crisis, two crises…the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 35-44.
  6. Karl Farmer, 2011. "Public-Debt Sustainability, Real Exchange Rate, and Country-Specific Saving Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65, February.
  7. Carlos A. Primo Braga & Gallina A. Vincelette, 2011. "Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis : Will This Time Be Different?," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2534, October.

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