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Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?

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Author Info

  • Bertrand Candelon

    ()

  • Franz Palm

    ()

Abstract

The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated. After reviewing the criteria used to measure the debt vulnerability, the balance sheet approach (BSA) is presented in order to illustrate the potential connections between these two types of crises. A graphical analysis yields evidence that at the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before. Nevertheless, the serious threats, which concern Greece and Ireland, do not permit us to exclude the occurrence of a contagious, or self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10645-010-9138-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.

Volume (Year): 158 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 81-99

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Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:158:y:2010:i:1:p:81-99

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100260

Related research

Keywords: Banking crisis; Sovereign debt crisis; European Union; E32; F36;

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References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt88m6g98w, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," NBER Working Papers 10015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1317-1338, July.
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  6. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2008. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Working Papers 08/238, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
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  9. Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
  10. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
  11. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1995. "Sovereign credit ratings," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Jun).
  12. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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  14. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Karl Farmer, 2011. "Public-Debt Sustainability, Real Exchange Rate, and Country-Specific Saving Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65, February.
  2. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Burietz, Aurore, 2013. "One crisis, two crises…the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 35-44.
  3. Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Bertrand Candelon & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2012. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Working Papers halshs-00630036, HAL.
  4. Beniamino Moro, 2013. "The Run On Repo and the Liquidity Shortage Problems of the Current Global Financial Crisis: Europe vs. The US," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 41-77, January.
  5. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:785-807 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Carlos A. Primo Braga & Gallina A. Vincelette, 2011. "Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis : Will This Time Be Different?," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2534, January.

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