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Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries

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  • Ardagna, Silvia
  • Caselli, Francesco
  • Lane, Timothy

Abstract

We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country’s interest rates. Domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates, however, even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4661.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4661

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Keywords: government deficit; long-term interest rates; public debt;

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  1. A trillion dollar war (crossposted at CT)
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