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The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes

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  • Michael G. Arghyrou
  • John D. Tsoukalas

Abstract

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001-2009 to levels inconsistent with long-term EMU participation; and (b) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non-credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms the sustainability of the EMU is in question.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3266.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3266

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Keywords: currency crises; bonds market; expectations; fiscal guarantees; contagion;

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References

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  1. Arghyrou, Michael G & Tsoukalas, John D., 2010. "The Option Of Last Resort: A Two-Currency Emu," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  2. Arghyrou, Michael G & Chortareas, Georgios, 2006. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  3. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
  4. Michael Arghyrou, 2009. "Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 621-643, June.
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Cited by:
  1. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2013. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Working Papers 2013_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "Public Debt Stock Sustainability in Selected OECD Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 31-49.
  3. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2013. "Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases," Working Papers 2013-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2013.
  4. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012/36, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
  5. Christian Fahrholz & Cezary Wójcik, 2012. "The Eurozone Needs Exit Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3845, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2012. "Fiscal Politics In Time: Pathways to Fiscal Consolidation, 1980-2012," Working Papers 201228, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  7. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Consumption and Wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area:A Nonlinear Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 24/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  8. Dmitri Blueschke & Reinhard Neck, 2011. "“Core” and “Periphery” in a Monetary Union: A Macroeconomic Policy Game," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 334-346, August.

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