This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Arghyrou, Michael G () (Cardiff Business School)
Gregoriou, Andros
Kontonikas, Alexandros

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We test for real interest parity (RIP) in the EU25 area. Our contribution is two-fold: First, we account for the previously overlooked effects of structural breaks on real interest rate differentials. Second, we test for RIP against the EMU average. For the majority of our sample countries we obtain evidence of real interest rate convergence towards the latter. Convergence, however, is a gradual process subject to structural breaks, typically falling close to the launch of the euro. Our findings have important implications relating to the single monetary policy and the progress new EU members have achieved towards joining the euro.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/E2007_26.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2007/26.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2007/26

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Aberconway Building, Colum Drive, CARDIFF, CF10 3EU
Phone: +44 (0) 29 20874417
Fax: +44 (0) 29 20874419
Web page: http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/carbs/econ/index.html
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Bruce Webb).

Related research
Keywords: real interest rate parity convergence structural breaks EU EMU

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nakagawa, Hironobu, 2002. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: implications of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 629-649, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eiji Fujii & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 7880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Comparing monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 645-662, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break," Working Papers 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Strazicich, Mark C. & Lee, Junsoo & Day, Edward, 2004. "Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-145, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 2002. "Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 443-469, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas & Xanthakis, Emmanuel, 1997. "Integration of international capital markets: further evidence from EMS and non-EMS membership," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 277-287, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2007. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity correcting for non-normality using the wild bootstrap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 285-290, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mark J. Holmes, 2005. "Integration or Independence? An Alternative Assessment of Real Interest Rate Linkages in the European Union," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(3), pages 407-427, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dutton, Marilyn Miller, 1993. "Real interest rate parity new measures and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-48, November.
  18. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Gagnon, Joseph E & Unferth, Mark D, 1995. "Is there a world real interest rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 845-855, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Evans, L. T. & Keef, S. P. & Okunev, J., 1994. "Modelling real interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 153-165, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Galbraith, JohnW. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 1999. "On the distributions of Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics in processes with moving average components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 25-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Arghyrou, Michael G & Chortareas, Georgios, 2006. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
  23. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the US or Japan?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Other versions:
  25. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-35, April.
    Other versions:
  27. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Interest Rate Parity: Some New Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 255-74, October.
  29. Phylaktis, Kate, 1999. "Capital market integration in the Pacific Basin region: an impulse response analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 267-287, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2007. "Does the real interest parity hypothesis hold? Evidence for developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 364-382, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Mancuso, Anthony J. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 2003. "Nonlinear aspects of capital market integration and real interest rate equalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 283-303. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," NBER Working Papers 11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Fountas, Stilianos & Wu, Jyh-lin, 1999. "Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 158-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2006. "Are international real interest rate linkages characterized by asymmetric adjustments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 384-396, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  41. Cook, Steven, 2005. "The stationarity of consumption-income ratios: Evidence from minimum LM unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 55-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Mark Hon, 2006. "A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 449-470, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Moosa, Imad A & Bhatti, Razzaque H, 1996. "Some Evidence on Mean Reversion in ex ante Real Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 177-91, May.
  44. Lopez, J. Humberto, 1997. "The power of the ADF test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to register as authors.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-18.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.