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Comparing Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank

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Author Info
Bernd Hayo (Philipps-University Marburg)
Boris Hofmann (ZEI, University of Bonn)

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Abstract

This paper compares the ECB’s conduct of monetary policy with that of the Bundesbank. Estimated monetary policy reaction functions for the Bundesbank (1979:4-1998:12) and the European Central Bank (1999:1- 2004:5) show that, while the ECB and the Bundesbank react similarly to expected inflation, the ECB reacts significantly stronger to the output gap. Theoretical considerations suggest that this stronger response to the output gap may rather be due to a higher interest rate sensitivity of the German output gap than to a higher weight given to output stabilisation by the ECB. Counterfactual simulations based on the estimated interest rate reaction functions suggest that German interest rates would not have been lower under a hypothetical Bundesbank regime after 1999. However, this conclusion crucially depends on the assumption of an unchanged long-run real interest rate for the EMU period. Adjusting the Bundesbank reaction function for the lower long-run real interest rate estimated for the ECB regime reverses this conclusion.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0504032.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 25 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0504032

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Keywords: Taylor rule; monetary policy; ECB; Bundesbank;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB experience: Frankfurt still matters!," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0070, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE). [Downloadable!]
  3. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes, 2007. "The Costs of EMU for Transition Countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bernd Hayo, 2006. "Is European Monetary Policy Appropriate for the EMU Member Countries? A Counterfactual Analysis," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200610, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Arghyrou, Michael G & Gadea, Maria Dolores, 2008. "The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael Arghyrou, 2009. "Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 621-643, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Michael G. Arghyrou & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2007_21, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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