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Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Junsoo Lee
John A. List
Mark C. Strazicich
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In this paper we examine temporal properties of eleven natural resource real price series from 1870-1990. Recent studies by Ahrens and Sharma [1997], Berck and Roberts [1996], and Slade [1988], among others, find that many nonrenewable resource prices have a stochastic trend. We revisit this issue by employing a Lagrangian Multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series. Our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks. We additionally show that both pre-testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy. Overall, the results in this paper are important in both a positive and normative sense; without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series, empirical verification of theories, forecasting, and proper inference are potentially fruitless.
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number
05-20.
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Date of creation: 2005Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:05-20Contact details of provider: Postal: Thelma C. Raley Hall, Boone, North Carolina 28608 Phone: 828-262-2148 Fax: 828-262-6105 Web page: http://www.business.appstate.edu/departments/economics/ More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004.
"Small Sample Properties of Forecasts From Autoregressive Models Under Structural Breaks ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003.
"Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks ,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
[Downloadable!] Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2003.
"Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks ,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0331, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
[Downloadable!] Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005.
"Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-73, July.
Other versions: Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004.
"Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break ,"
Working Papers
04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
[Downloadable!]
Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997.
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repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:359-68 is not listed on IDEAS
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CESifo Working Paper Series
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[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003.
"How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series? ,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Pindyck, Robert S, 1980.
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Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
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CEPR Discussion Papers
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Other versions: Geoffrey Heal, 1976.
"The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology ,"
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The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
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Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
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Slade, Margaret E., 1982.
"Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain ,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management ,
Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996.
"The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment ,"
American Economic Review ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996.
"Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up? ,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management ,
Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001.
" Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997.
"Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
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Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988.
"Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
880, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
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Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995.
"An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change ,"
Econometric Theory ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February.
[Downloadable!]
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007.
"Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices ,"
Monash Economics Working Papers
40/07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008.
"Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield ,"
Cahiers de recherche
0801, GREEN.
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Michael G. Arghyrou & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007.
"Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union ,"
Working Papers
2007_21, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Arghyrou, Michael G & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2007.
"Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union ,"
Cardiff Economics Working Papers
E2007/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
[Downloadable!] Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009.
"Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union ,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money ,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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