Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Financial integration in the pacific basin region: RIP by PANIC attack?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Amornthum, Somchai
  • Bonham, Carl S.

Abstract

We exploit advances in panel data econometrics to test whether real interest parity holds in the Pacific Basin region. We test for a unit root in the difference between either the US, Japanese or Euro area real interest rate and the real interest rates from a panel of eleven Pacific Basin economies. Unlike extant studies that test for RIP using panel data, we use Bai and Ng's (2004) PANIC test which allows for a very general model of cross-section dependence, including the possibility of cross-unit cointegration. Ignoring the possibility of cross-unit cointegration can lead to severe size distortions and to an over-rejection of the null hypothesis of a unit root. We overturn earlier findings based on first-generation panel tests, and demonstrate that cross-unit cointegration leads to incorrect conclusions. We find that RIP holds in the Pacific region. Real interest rates converge to the US rate. We find no support for the hypothesis that Pacific Basin real interest rates converge to either the Japanese or Euro area rates.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560611000751
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 1019-1033

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:6:p:1019-1033

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Real interest parity Pacific-basin capital market integration Panel unit root PANIC;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Rune Höglund & Ralf Östermark, 2003. "Size and power of some cointegration tests under structural breaks and heteroskedastic noise," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, January.
  4. Perron, P. & Rodriguez, G., 2000. "Seraching for Additive Outliers in Nonstationary Time Series," Working Papers 0005e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  7. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2008. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the largest root and the half-life," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 76-101, February.
  10. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
  11. Luciano Gutierrez, 2003. "Panel Unit Roots Tests for Cross-Sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometrics 0310004, EconWPA.
  12. Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2000. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Panel Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 5.
  13. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Alex Luiz Ferreira & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Does the Real Interest Parity Hypothesis Hold? Evidence for Developed and Emerging Markets," Studies in Economics 0301, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  15. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-57, December.
  16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  17. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Haw, Chan Tze & Fountas, Stilianos, 2005. "A panel study on real interest rate parity in East Asian countries: Pre- and post-liberalization era," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 69-85, August.
  18. Luciano Gutierrez, 2003. "PPP May not Hold for Agricultural Commodities," International Trade 0309022, EconWPA.
  19. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  21. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  22. Banerjee, Anindya & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2002. "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 13, Royal Economic Society.
  23. Leslie Teo & David Cowen & Hemant Shah & Ranil Salgado & Alessandro Zanello, 2006. "Financial Integration in Asia," IMF Working Papers 06/196, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  26. Azali, M. & Habibullah, M. S. & Baharumshah, A. Z., 2001. "Does PPP hold between Asian and Japanese economies? Evidence using panel unit root and panel cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 35-50, January.
  27. Stilianos Fountas & Jyh-lin Wu, 1998. "Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries," Working Papers 24, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1998.
  28. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December.
  29. Gengenbach,Christian & Palm,Franz & Urbain,Jean-Pierre, 2004. "Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependencies: Comparison and Implications for Modelling," Research Memorandum 040, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  30. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 1994. "Real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 107-124, February.
  31. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
  32. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the US or Japan?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  33. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
  34. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  35. Phylaktis, Kate, 1999. "Capital market integration in the Pacific Basin region: an impulse response analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 267-287, February.
  36. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Fountas, Stilianos, 2000. "Real Interest Rate Parity under Regime Shifts and Implications for Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(6), pages 685-700, December.
  37. Hiroshi Yamada, 2002. "Real interest rate equalization: some empirical evidence from the three major world financial markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(16), pages 2069-2073.
  38. Abhisek Banerjee & Manmohan Singh, 2006. "Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/249, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  40. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
  41. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests With Cross-Section Dependence: A Further Investigation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(04), pages 1088-1114, August.
  42. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "Financial liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Implications for real interest rate linkages," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 36-48, March.
  43. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Hamzah, Nor Aishah, 2013. "Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 634-642.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:6:p:1019-1033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.