IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v57y2010i5p568-590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Real Interest Rate Parity Hold For Oecd Countries? New Evidence Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Cross‐Section Dependence And Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero
  • Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre
  • Cecilio Tamarit

Abstract

This paper tests for real interest rate parity (RIRP) among the 17 major Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries over the period 1978:Q1–2006:Q1. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of panel data tests that are valid under cross‐section dependence and the presence of multiple structural breaks. This feature is important because the misspecification errors due to not accounting for structural breaks and/or cross‐section dependence can lead to misleading conclusions. Our results support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for short‐term interest rate differentials once dependence and structural breaks are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "Does Real Interest Rate Parity Hold For Oecd Countries? New Evidence Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Cross‐Section Dependence And Structural Breaks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 568-590, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:57:y:2010:i:5:p:568-590
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2010.00531.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2010.00531.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2010.00531.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 1994. "Real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 107-124, February.
    2. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi‐Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, August.
    5. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    6. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    7. Lawrence Goldberg & James Lothian & John Okunev, 2003. "Has International Financial Integration Increased?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 299-317, July.
    8. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    9. Reichenstein, William & Elliott, J. Walter, 1987. "A comparison of models of long-term inflationary expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 405-425, May.
    10. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    13. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 2, pages 17-56, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    15. Lee, Junsoo & Huang, Cliff J. & Shin, Yongcheol, 1997. "On stationary tests in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 165-172, August.
    16. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
    17. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.
    18. Harris, David & Leybourne, Stephen & McCabe, Brendan, 2005. "Panel Stationarity Tests for Purchasing Power Parity With Cross-Sectional Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 395-409, October.
    19. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    20. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
    22. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    23. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2005. "Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 77-91, January.
    24. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    25. Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
    26. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
    27. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    28. Robert Darin & Robert L. Hetzel, 1995. "An empirical measure of the real rate of interest," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 17-47.
    29. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "A guide to the computation of stationarity tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 433-448, June.
    30. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    31. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
    32. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2004. "Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-405.
    33. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    34. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2007. "Does the real interest parity hypothesis hold? Evidence for developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 364-382, April.
    35. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    36. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    37. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin B, 2000. "Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 320-334, August.
    38. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2003. "Breaking date misspecification error for the level shift KPSS test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 365-371, December.
    39. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
    40. Stilianos Fountas & Jyh‐lin Wu, 1999. "Testing For Real Interest Rate Convergence In European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 158-174, May.
    41. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    42. Fountas, Stilianos & Wu, Jyh-lin, 1999. "Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 158-174, May.
    43. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2008. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the largest root and the half-life," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 76-101, February.
    44. Moosa, Imad A & Bhatti, Razzaque H, 1996. "Some Evidence on Mean Reversion in ex ante Real Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 177-191, May.
    45. Jyh‐Lin Wu & Stilianos Fountas, 2000. "Real Interest Rate Parity under Regime Shifts and Implications for Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(6), pages 685-700, December.
    46. Boskin, Michael J. & Lau, Lawrence J., 1988. "An Analysis of Postwar U.S. Consumption and Saving," CEPR Publications 244417, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    47. Cavaglia, Stefano, 1992. "The persistence of real interest differentials: A Kalman filtering approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 429-443, June.
    48. Driffill, John & Snell, Andrew, 2003. "What Moves OECD Real Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 375-402, June.
    49. Megow, N. & Uetz, M.J. & Vredeveld, T., 2004. "Stochastic Online Scheduling on Parallel Machines," Research Memorandum 040, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    50. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
    51. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    52. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion‐I‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2009. "Testing For Real Interest Rate Parity Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Dependence: A Note," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 112-126, January.
    53. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    54. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND-GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 133-150, April.
    4. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Omid Ranjbar, 2019. "Real Interest Rate Parity And Fourier Quantile Unit Root Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 348-358, July.
    6. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Hamzah, Nor Aishah, 2013. "Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 634-642.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pepin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2014. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING OLD AND NEW GENERATIONS OF PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Working Papers hal-00959475, HAL.
    8. Nektarios Aslanidis & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "Has the Financial Crisis affected the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.
    9. You, Zhongyuan & Goodwin, Barry K. & Guney, Selin, 2023. "A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 215-229.
    10. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The threshold consumption correlation-based approach to international capital mobility: Evidence from advanced and developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 256-263.
    11. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "Real interest parity: A note on Asian countries using panel stationarity tests," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 550-557.
    12. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 718-727, September.
    13. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2015. "Does real interest rate parity really hold? New evidence from G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 299-306.
    14. Abdullah Gulcu & Dilem Yildirim, 2018. "Smooth Breaks And Nonlinear Mean Reversion In Real Interest Parity: Evidence From East Asian Countries," ERC Working Papers 1804, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2018.
    15. Nazlioglu, Saban & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Kilic, Emre & Altuntas, Mehmet, 2022. "Financial market integration of emerging markets: Heavy tails, structural shifts, nonlinearity, and asymmetric persistence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Ayşegül Çorakcı & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Tolga Omay, 2017. "Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 91-120, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks," Working Papers CREAP2006-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2006.
    2. Dreger, Christian, 2010. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 274-285.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion‐I‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2009. "Testing For Real Interest Rate Parity Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Dependence: A Note," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 112-126, January.
    4. Amornthum, Somchai & Bonham, Carl S., 2011. "Financial integration in the pacific basin region: RIP by PANIC attack?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1019-1033, October.
    5. Zixiong Xie & Shyh-Wei Chen & An-Chi Wu, 2023. "Real interest rate parity in the Pacific Rim countries: new empirical evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1471-1515, March.
    6. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    7. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers XREAP2008-06, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2008.
    8. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2007. "Another Look at the Null of Stationary RealExchange Rates. Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," IREA Working Papers 200710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007.
    9. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    10. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2015. "Does real interest rate parity really hold? New evidence from G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 299-306.
    11. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: An application to US cities," Working Papers XREAP2008-08, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jul 2008.
    12. Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Examining real interest parity: Which component reverts quickest and in which regime?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-83.
    13. You, Zhongyuan & Goodwin, Barry K. & Guney, Selin, 2023. "A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 215-229.
    14. Basher Syed A. & Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís, 2009. "Price Level Convergence, Purchasing Power Parity and Multiple Structural Breaks in Panel Data Analysis: An Application to U.S. Cities," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
    15. Jana Riedel, 2020. "On real interest rate convergence among G7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 599-626, August.
    16. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Boršič, Darja, 2013. "Real interest parity in Central and Eastern European countries: Evidence on integration into EU and the US markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 163-180.
    17. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.
    18. Mark J. Holmes & Ping Wang, 2008. "Real Convergence and the EU Accession Countries," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 215-236, December.
    19. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND-GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 133-150, April.
    20. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee, 2013. "Further Evidence On Real Interest Rate Equalization: Panel Information, Non-Linearities And Structural Changes," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 85-105, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:57:y:2010:i:5:p:568-590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.