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The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures

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  • Otero, Jesús

Abstract

This study examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of 24 commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao test (2008) is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break at different locations across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed. Once the breaks are removed from the underlying series, the persistence of commodity price shocks is shorter than that obtained in other studies using alternative methodologies.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/wp2011/wp2011-071.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2011/71.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-71

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Keywords: Prebisch and Singer hypothesis; panel stationarity;

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References

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  2. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
  3. Giulietti, Monica & Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 2006. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data in the presence of cross section dependence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 758, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  7. Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1585, Econometric Society.
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  9. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
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  17. Josep Llu�s Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tom�s del Barrio-Castro & Enrique L�pez-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
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  20. Helg, Rodolfo, 1991. "A note on the stationarity of the primary commodities relative price index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 55-60, May.
  21. Tae-Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, 09.
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Cited by:
  1. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.

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