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A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

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  • Bagdatoglou, George
  • Kontonikas, Alexandros

Abstract

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/113
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2009-23.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:113

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Keywords: real interest rate parity; bounds test; structural breaks;

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  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  3. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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  5. Lothian, James R., 1998. "Some new stylized facts of floating exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 29-39, February.
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  7. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  8. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
  9. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
  10. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
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  14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  15. Alex Luiz Ferreira & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Does the Real Interest Parity Hypothesis Hold? Evidence for Developed and Emerging Markets," Studies in Economics 0301, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  17. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  18. Fountas, Stilianos & Wu, Jyh-lin, 1999. "Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 158-74, May.
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  20. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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  22. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
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