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The International Linkage of Real Interest Rates: The European - U.S. Connection

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Author Info
Robert E. Cumby
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

Casual observation indicates that in recent years real interest rates in the United States appear to have risen sharply and have remained high relative to historical standards. Many observers have claimed that these high real rates have been transmitted abroad and have lead to high real rates in the rest of the industrialized countries. Concern over the level of real rates has been widespread in the analyses by economic policymakers both in Europe and in the United States. In this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries that have been raised by the recent policy debates in Europe and the United States: Have ex ante real rates in the United States and Europe been high during recent years? Has there been a link between U.S. real rates and those in other countries? Can this link be quantified?The basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the European countries and the United States. Indeed, real interest rates in the United States are currently at high levels unprecedented in the post war period, which rival the levels that occurred during the Great Depression. Complaints that real interest rates in the United States are exceedingly high seem to be well justified. There is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in U.S. real rates and those in Europe. However,European real rates typically do not move one-for-one with U.S. real rates,still leaving open the possibility that European monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1423.

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Date of creation: Jan 1987
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Publication status: published as Cumby, Robert E. and Frederic S. Mishkin. "The International Linkage of Real Interest Rates: The European - U.S. Connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 5, March 1986, pp. 5-23.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1423

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Intertemporal Price Speculation and the Optimal Current-Account Deficit," NBER Working Papers 1100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchalge Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal Across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," NBER Working Papers 1048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1012, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "Understanding Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1997. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," NBER Working Papers 5080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and the Globalisation of Financial Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9203, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philip Inyeob Ji & Jae H. Kim, 2005. "Real Interest Rate Linkages in the Pacific Basin Region," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Johannes Groeneveld & Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool, 1998. "Credibility of European economic convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 1-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Enrico Saltari & Davide Ticchi, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, And The Aggregate Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," Working Papers 69, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Angelos Kanas & Georgios Tsiotas, 2005. "Real interest rates linkages between the USA and the UK in the postwar period," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 251-262. [Downloadable!]
  9. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chan, Tze-Haw & Masih, A. Mansur A. & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Financial Integration of East Asian Economies: Evidence from Real Interest Parity," MPRA Paper 2210, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
  10. Devine, Máiréad, 1997. "The Cointegration of International Interest rates," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/97, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  11. Jane Marrinan & Eva Ventura, 1995. "Efectos del gasto publico sobre el ahorro y la inversión en una economía abierta," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(3), pages 349-370, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martin O'Brien, 2007. "Real Interest Parity in the EU and the Consequences for Euro Area Membership: Panel Data Evidence, 1979-2005," Papers WP183, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert A. Blecker, 1998. "International Capital Mobility, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and the Risk of Global Contraction," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-10, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School, revised Nov 2000. [Downloadable!]
  14. Carol L. Osler, 1987. "Portfolio Diversification, Real Interest Rates, and the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 2441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ling, Tai-Hu & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Syed Khalid Wafa, Syed Azizi Wafa, 2006. "Real interest rates equalization: The case of Malaysia and Singapore," MPRA Paper 515, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  17. Roger H. Gordon & A. Lans Bovenberg, 1994. "Why is Capital so Immobile Internationally?: Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 4796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Keshab Shrestha & Kok Tan, 2005. "Real Interest Rate Parity: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis Using Wavelets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 139-157, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Eiji Fujii & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 7880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  21. Christian Dreger & Christian Schumacher, 2003. "Are Real Interest Rates Cointegrated? Further evidence based on paneleconometric methods," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 41-53, March. [Downloadable!]
  22. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," Working Papers 072005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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