IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v32y2006i4p449-470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Fernández-Kranz
  • Mark Hon

Abstract

Much attention has been given to claims that real estate prices in Spain are overvalued in relation to income and how plummeting house prices can jeopardize the economy (The Economist, 2003 and IMF, 2004). The measure of income elasticity on housing expenditure is often of considerable interest to applied researchers and policy makers in real estate economics, but the problem of omitted variables in some estimation techniques can lead to severe biases. In this paper we estimate the income elasticity of the demand for housing in Spain based on the cross-section of prices and income in fifty Spanish provinces from 1996 to 2002. In comparison to long-run equilibrium models fitted with time-series data, our results show a much weaker role of income growth as a vehicle for house price increases in the long run. According to our estimates, the rate of growth of house prices in Spain between 1998 and 2003 points to a real estate bubble with prices above the long-term equilibrium level. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Mark Hon, 2006. "A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 449-470, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:32:y:2006:i:4:p:449-470
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-006-6962-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-006-6962-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-006-6962-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    2. Arcelus, Francisco & Meltzer, Allan H, 1973. "The Markets for Housing and Housing Services," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 78-99, Part I Fe.
    3. Arcelus, Francisco & Meltzer, Allan H, 1973. "The Markets for Housing and Housing Services: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 973-978, November.
    4. Lopez, Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Exposito, Pilar, 1998. "El comportamiento de los precios de la vivienda en las regiones españolas: principales determinantes," Economic Development 34, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    5. Goodman, Allen C. & Kawai, Masahiro, 1982. "Permanent income, hedonic prices, and demand for housing: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 214-237, September.
    6. Wilkinson, R K, 1973. "The Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 361-377, November.
    7. Goodman, Allen C. & Kawai, Masahiro, 1986. "Functional form, sample selection, and housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-167, September.
    8. Mayo, Stephen K., 1981. "Theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 95-116, July.
    9. Justo Manrique & Kalu Ojah, 2003. "The demand for housing in Spain: an endogenous switching regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 323-336.
    10. Hansen, Julia L. & Formby, John P. & Smith, W. James, 1996. "The Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: Evidence from Concentration Curves," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-192, March.
    11. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Suh, Seoung Hwan, 1993. "Speculation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-87, January.
    12. Polinsky, A Mitchell, 1977. "The Demand for Housing: A Study in Specification and Grouping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 447-461, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Osman Solak & Burhan Kabadayi, 2016. "Bounds Testing Approaches to Housing Demand in Turkey: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1132-1135.
    2. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2018. "Speculative price bubbles in urban housing markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1957-1983.
    3. Torres-Tellez, Jonathan & Montero Soler, Alberto, 2021. "El precio de la vivienda en España tras el inicio de la crisis económica: un análisis empírico || Housing prices in Spain after the beginning of the financial crisis: An empirical analysis," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 32(1), pages 376-391, December.
    4. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, Maria Dolores, 2012. "The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 16-34.
    5. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2016. "Evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 119-130.
    6. David Downs & Z. Güner, 2012. "Information Producers and Valuation: Evidence from Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 167-183, January.
    7. Arif Igdeli, 2020. "A Spatial Econometric Analysis on the Determinants of Regional Housing Demand," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 145-165, December.
    8. Carlos Rodríguez & Ricardo Bustillo, 2010. "Modelling Foreign Real Estate Investment: The Spanish Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 354-367, October.
    9. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    10. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    11. Yadi Zhu & Feng Chen & Ming Li & Zijia Wang, 2018. "Inferring the Economic Attributes of Urban Rail Transit Passengers Based on Individual Mobility Using Multisource Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. José I. Castillo-Manzano & Juan P. Asencio-Flores, 2012. "Competition Between New Port Governance Models on the Iberian Peninsula," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 519-537, January.
    14. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 18852, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    15. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 3604, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    16. Belke, Ansgar H. & Gros, Daniel, 2007. "Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy, House Prices and Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 2547, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Zheng, Xian & Wang, Hui, 2010. "A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1445-1454.
    18. Till Baldenius & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Die neue Wohnungsfrage: Gewinner und Verlierer des deutschen Immobilienbooms," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 019, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    19. Hsiao-Jung Teng & Chin-Oh Chang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2017. "Housing bubble contagion from city centre to suburbs," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1463-1481, May.
    20. Liu, Xiangling, 2019. "The income elasticity of housing demand in New South Wales, Australia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-84.
    21. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Mark Hoven Stohs & Yun W. Park, 2007. "Residential Stability or Rational Bubble: Proposition 13 in Southern California," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 26-47.
    23. Mr. Adrian Alter & Elizabeth M. Mahoney, 2020. "Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/042, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa15p67, European Regional Science Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans van Fulpen, 1988. "An Analysis of the Housing Market in the Netherlands," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 25(3), pages 190-203, June.
    2. Duebel, Hans-Joachim & Brzeski, W. Jan & Hamilton, Ellen, 2006. "Rental choice and housing policy realignment in transition : post-privatization challenges in the Europe and Central Asia region," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3884, The World Bank.
    3. Hansen, Julia L. & Formby, John P. & Smith, W. James, 1998. "Estimating the Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: A Comparison of Traditional and Lorenz-Concentration Curve Methodologies," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 328-342, December.
    4. Nuzhat Ahmad, 1994. "A Joint Model of Tenure Choice and Demand for Housing in the City of Karachi," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1691-1706, December.
    5. Justo Manrique & Kalu Ojah, 2003. "The demand for housing in Spain: an endogenous switching regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 323-336.
    6. Daniel Shefer, 1990. "The Demand for Housing, and Permanent Income, in Indonesia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 259-272, April.
    7. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 18852, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    8. Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 2002. "The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 563-584, May.
    9. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 62-74.
    10. Ben C. Arimah, 1997. "The Determinants of Housing Tenure Choice in Ibadan, Nigeria," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 105-124, January.
    11. Fredrik Carlsen & Stefan Leknes, 2022. "For whom are cities good places to live?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(12), pages 2177-2190, December.
    12. Timothy Q. Cook, 1974. "The residential mortgage market in recent years," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 60(Sep), pages 3-18.
    13. Zhou Yu, 2003. "Housing Tenure Choice of Taiwanese Immigrants: A Different Path to Residential Assimilation," Working Paper 8611, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    14. Andrew J Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O Ravn, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1503-1560.
    15. H.-J. Büttler, 1976. "The Markets for Land, Housing, and Housing Services: An Empirical Study over Time," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 112(IV), pages 619-637, December.
    16. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2002. "Household Expenditure Patterns for Housing Attributes: A Linear Expenditure System with Hedonic Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-93, March.
    17. Karmali,Nadeem M. & Aline Weng, 2022. "Housing Demand and Affordability in India : Implications for Housing Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10031, The World Bank.
    18. Hanson, Andrew & Schnier, Kurt & Turnbull, Geoffrey K., 2012. "Drive 'Til You Qualify: Credit quality and household location," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 63-77.
    19. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    20. Andrejs Skaburskis, 1997. "Gender Differences in Housing Demand," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 275-320, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income elasticity; Cross-section; Housing expenditure; R20; E21;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:32:y:2006:i:4:p:449-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.