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Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments

Author

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  • Blaise Gnimassoun

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper aims at studying current-account imbalances by paying a particular attention to exchange-rate misalignments. We rely on a nonlinear model linking the persistence of current-account imbalances to the deviation of the exchange rate to its equilibrium value. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we show that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on currency misalignments. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non-eurozone members.

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  • Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," Working Papers hal-04141182, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141182
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141182
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    Cited by:

    1. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "How Do Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence From A Panel Var Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1717-1741, October.
    2. Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2015. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-74.
    3. Raza, Hamid & Zoega, Gylfi & Kinsella, Stephen, 2018. "Capital inflows, crisis and recovery in small open economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 273-282.
    4. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    5. Radovan Kovačević, 2018. "Structural And Cyclical Factors Of Serbia’S Current Account," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(217), pages 75-98, April – J.
    6. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Working Papers hal-04141342, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current-account imbalances; current-account persistence; exchange-rate misalignments; panel smooth transition regression models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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