Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data
AbstractWe use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show: significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements; announcements are not anticipated at 1-2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1-2 weeks; spillover effects especially from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries. JEL Classification: C23, E44, G15
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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/14, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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