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Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies

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Author Info

  • Hill, Paula
  • Brooks, Robert
  • Faff, Robert

Abstract

We investigate agency variation in credit quality assessment (Standard and Poor's vs. Moody's vs. Fitch) employing sovereign ratings data for 129 countries, spanning the period 1990-2006. While we find that the credit rating agencies often disagree about credit quality, it is usually confined to one or two notches on the finer scale. We find that several variables have varying importance in explaining ratings across agencies which leads us to conclude that material heterogeneity exists between them. Also, while watch and outlook procedures are generally strong predictors of rating changes relative to other public data, additional significant variables suggest that it might be possible to augment these agency data to provide better forecasts of future rating changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1327-1343

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1327-1343

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Credit rating Rating transition Prediction Information content Sovereign;

References

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  26. repec:fth:pennfi:67 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-577.
  2. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
  3. Pastor Monsálvez José Manuel & Fernández de Guevara Radoselovics Juan & Salvador Muñoz Carlos, 2012. "Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Bank Ratings: The Effect of the Hardening of Rating Policies and Worsening of Solvency," Working Papers 2012120, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
  4. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
  5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Dynamic Correlations of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro zone and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies' Downgrades," MPRA Paper 43013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," AQR Working Papers 201209, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2012.
  7. Fuchs , Andreas & Gehring , Kai, 2013. "The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers 0552, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  8. Chen, Jie & Hill, Paula, 2013. "The impact of diverse measures of default risk on UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5118-5131.
  9. Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
  10. Tsaig, Yaakov & Levy, Amnon & Wang, Yashan, 2011. "Analyzing the impact of credit migration in a portfolio setting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3145-3157.
  11. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2013. "How do sovereign credit rating changes affect private investment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4820-4833.
  12. Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1309-1347, November/.
  13. Bank for International Settlements, 2013. "Sovereign debt: financial market over-reliance on credit rating agencies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 72, pages 78-90 Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Chiwitt, Ulrich, 2014. "Ratingagenturen - Fluch oder Segen? Eine kritische Bestandsaufnahme," Arbeitspapiere der FOM 48, FOM Hochschule für Oekonomie & Management.
  15. Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger, 2012. "Rating Agencies: Role and Influence of Their Sovereign Credit Risk Assessment in the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(6), pages 912-921, November.
  16. Flandreau, Marc & Gaillard, Norbert & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Ratings Performance, Regulation and the Great Depression: Lessons from Foreign Government Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 7328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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