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Analyzing the impact of credit migration in a portfolio setting

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  • Tsaig, Yaakov
  • Levy, Amnon
  • Wang, Yashan
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    Abstract

    Credit migration is an essential component of credit portfolio modeling. In this paper, we outline a framework for gauging the effects of credit migration on portfolio risk measurements. For a typical loan portfolio, we find credit migration can explain as much as 51% of volatility and 35% of economic capital. We compare through-the-cycle migration effects, implied by agency rating transitions, with point-in-time migration, implied by EDF™ (Expected Default Frequency) transitions, and find that migration of point-in-time credit quality accounts for a greater fraction of total portfolio risk when compared with through-the-cycle dynamics. In a stylized analytic setting, we show that, when controlling for PD term structure effects, higher likelihood of moving away from the current credit state does not necessarily imply greater risk. Finally, we review methods for generating high-frequency transition matrices, needed for analyzing instruments with cash flows or contingencies whose frequencies are asynchronous to an available transition matrix. We further demonstrate that the naïve application of such methods can result in material deviations to portfolio analytics.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 3145-3157

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:12:p:3145-3157

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Credit migration; Credit risk; Credit portfolio management; Markov model; Transition matrix;

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    References

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    1. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
    2. Diana Bonfim, 2007. "Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers w200707, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    4. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
    6. Frydman, Halina & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Credit rating dynamics and Markov mixture models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1062-1075, June.
    7. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
    8. Blöchlinger, Andreas, 2011. "Arbitrage-free credit pricing using default probabilities and risk sensitivities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 268-281, February.
    9. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
    10. Kadam, Ashay & Lenk, Peter, 2008. "Bayesian inference for issuer heterogeneity in credit ratings migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2267-2274, October.
    11. Livingston, Miles & Naranjo, Andy & Zhou, Lei, 2008. "Split bond ratings and rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1613-1624, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Dorfleitner, G. & Priberny, C., 2013. "A quantitative model for structured microfinance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 12-22.
    2. Xing, Haipeng & Sun, Ning & Chen, Ying, 2012. "Credit rating dynamics in the presence of unknown structural breaks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 78-89.

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