Sovereign Rating Transitions And The Price Of Default Risk In Emerging Markets
AbstractThis paper introduces an expected value estimator with “expert knowledge” to the robust estimation of sovereign rating transitions which are characterised by few observations. Our estimates of default premia within Mexican, Colombian and Brazilian Eurobond yield spreads provide a better fit than ‘cohort’ and continuous-time observation approaches. The analysis suggests that default risk accounted for a rather small share (decreasing with maturity) of the yield spreads for non-investment grade Colombian and Brazilian Eurobonds in 2003. This share increased while yield spreads fell during 2003-2005 mainly due to non-default risk factors. Default and liquidity premia for investment-grade Mexican spreads both decreased at similar rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 07-18.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Emerging markets; sovereign default; rating transitions; yield spreads; default premia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
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