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On Sovereign Credit Migration: A Study of Alternative Estimators and Rating Dynamics

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  • Elena Kalotychou

    ()
    (Cass Business School City University London)

  • Ana-Maria Fuertes

    (Cass Business School City University London)

Abstract

This paper investigates the finite-sample behaviour of sovereign credit migration estimators and analyzes the properties of the rating process. Through bootstrap simulations, we compare a discrete multinomial estimator and two continuous hazard rate methods which differ in that one neglects time-heterogeneity in the rating process whereas the other accounts for it. The study is based on Moody's ratings 1981-2004 for 72 industrialized and emerging economies. Hazard rate estimators yield more accurate default probabilities. The time homogeneity assumption leads to underestimating the default probability and greater migration risk is inferred upon relaxing it. There is evidence of duration dependence and downgrade momentum effects in the rating process. These findings have important implications for economic and regulatory capital allocation and for the pricing of credit sensitive instruments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 509.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:509

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Keywords: Sovereign credit risk; Rating transitions; Markov chain; Time heterogeneity; Rating momentum; Duration dependence.;

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  1. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
  2. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
  3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
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  6. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
  7. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & André Monteiro, 2005. "The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005.
  8. Robert B. Israel & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jason Z. Wei, 2001. "Finding Generators for Markov Chains via Empirical Transition Matrices, with Applications to Credit Ratings," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 245-265.
  9. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
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  13. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
  14. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January.
  15. Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
  16. Wei, Jason Z., 2003. "A multi-factor, credit migration model for sovereign and corporate debts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 709-735, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
  2. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
  3. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
  4. Sumon Bhaumik & John S. Landon-Lane, 2007. "Directional Mobility of Ratings," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp900, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
  6. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "Sovereign Ratings and Migrations: Emerging Markets," Working Papers 10009, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  7. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 140-147, September.
  8. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Default probability estimation in small samples: With an application to sovereign bonds," Discussion Papers in Statistics and Econometrics 5/11, University of Cologne, Department for Economic and Social Statistics.
  9. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
  10. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
  11. Chan, Ngai Hang & Wong, Hoi Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2012. "Structural model of credit migration," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3477-3490.
  12. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Default probability estimation in small samples - with an application to sovereign bonds," MPRA Paper 33778, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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