On Sovereign Credit Migration: A Study of Alternative Estimators and Rating Dynamics
AbstractThis paper investigates the finite-sample behaviour of sovereign credit migration estimators and analyzes the properties of the rating process. Through bootstrap simulations, we compare a discrete multinomial estimator and two continuous hazard rate methods which differ in that one neglects time-heterogeneity in the rating process whereas the other accounts for it. The study is based on Moody's ratings 1981-2004 for 72 industrialized and emerging economies. Hazard rate estimators yield more accurate default probabilities. The time homogeneity assumption leads to underestimating the default probability and greater migration risk is inferred upon relaxing it. There is evidence of duration dependence and downgrade momentum effects in the rating process. These findings have important implications for economic and regulatory capital allocation and for the pricing of credit sensitive instruments.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 509.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Sovereign credit risk; Rating transitions; Markov chain; Time heterogeneity; Rating momentum; Duration dependence.;
Other versions of this item:
- Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3448-3469, April.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-07-15 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-07-15 (Financial Markets)
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