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On Sovereign Credit Migration: A Study of Alternative Estimators and Rating Dynamics

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Author Info
Elena Kalotychou () (Cass Business School City University London)
Ana-Maria Fuertes (Cass Business School City University London)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the finite-sample behaviour of sovereign credit migration estimators and analyzes the properties of the rating process. Through bootstrap simulations, we compare a discrete multinomial estimator and two continuous hazard rate methods which differ in that one neglects time-heterogeneity in the rating process whereas the other accounts for it. The study is based on Moody's ratings 1981-2004 for 72 industrialized and emerging economies. Hazard rate estimators yield more accurate default probabilities. The time homogeneity assumption leads to underestimating the default probability and greater migration risk is inferred upon relaxing it. There is evidence of duration dependence and downgrade momentum effects in the rating process. These findings have important implications for economic and regulatory capital allocation and for the pricing of credit sensitive instruments.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 509.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:509

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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign credit risk; Rating transitions; Markov chain; Time heterogeneity; Rating momentum; Duration dependence.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  8. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sumon Bhaumik & John S. Landon-Lane, 2007. "Directional Mobility of Ratings," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp900, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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